53% Upside Potential Despite 19% Stock Decline

Adani Enterprises just restructured its copper tube business through a strategic share swap with MetTube, but the stock has lost momentum over the past month, down nearly 1% in October. At ₹2,481.00, shares are trading 19% below the 52-week high of ₹3,070.00 hit just weeks ago in early November 2024, yet analysts see 53% upside ahead. For traders, the question is whether this copper joint venture unlocks value or signals distraction from core energy operations.

What Happened

On November 1, 2025, Adani Enterprises completed a dual transaction involving its copper tubes business. The company divested its 50% stake in Kutch Copper Tubes Limited (KCTL) to MetTube Mauritius Private Limited for ₹4.97 crore in cash and 5.64 crore equity shares of MetTube Copper India Private Limited (MCIPL) at ₹10 per share. Simultaneously, Adani acquired a 50% stake in MCIPL through a share swap arrangement.

Following these transactions, both KCTL and MCIPL became 50:50 joint ventures, with KCTL no longer operating as a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises. MCIPL reported a turnover of ₹1,079 crore for FY2024-25 and a net worth of ₹26 crore as of March 31, 2025. The deal aims to strengthen India’s self-reliance in copper tube manufacturing by combining Adani’s infrastructure capabilities with MetTube’s global expertise in HVAC-grade copper tubes.

Stock Performance and Analyst View

Adani Enterprises closed at ₹2,481.00 on October 31, 2025, reflecting a 1.82% decline on the day and a modest 0.99% drop for the month. The stock is trading in the lower half of its 52-week range of ₹2,025.00 to ₹3,070.00, indicating bearish near-term momentum. Volume has been subdued, with October’s monthly volume at 16.89 million shares, down sharply from September’s 34.98 million, suggesting waning trader interest.

Despite the recent weakness, analyst sentiment remains bullish. According to Trendlyne.com (November 2, 2025), the consensus share price target stands at ₹2,995.00, with an average target of ₹3,801.00, implying 53.2% upside from current levels. Based on analyst estimates reported by Mint (October 31, 2025), the stock has a “Buy” consensus, with 50% of analysts issuing a “Strong Buy” rating and 50% a “Buy” rating. No analysts have assigned “Hold,” “Sell,” or “Strong Sell” ratings. Ventura Securities projected a bullish target of ₹3,800 (as of December 30, 2024), representing a 58% upside over 24 months.

What This Means for Traders

The copper joint venture signals Adani’s ambition to diversify beyond energy and infrastructure, but the stock’s muted reaction and declining volume suggest traders are unconvinced—at least for now. The lack of price momentum following the November 1 announcement indicates this deal is being viewed as a long-term strategic play rather than a near-term catalyst. With ₹1,000 crore in capex earmarked for copper in FY26 and ₹7,300 crore in debt tied to copper assets yet to contribute to EBITDA, this segment remains a drag on profitability.

For conservative traders, the risk-reward is skewed. The stock needs to reclaim ₹2,600 (the October high) to confirm renewed bullish momentum. A break above ₹2,650 could target ₹2,800, but resistance at the 52-week high of ₹3,070 remains formidable. Support sits at ₹2,465 (October low), with a breakdown below ₹2,400 opening downside toward ₹2,300.

Aggressive traders might view the 53% analyst upside as a contrarian opportunity, but timing is critical. The next earnings report (expected late October/early November) will reveal whether copper revenue is materializing or if this remains a speculative bet. Watch for EBITDA contribution from Kutch Copper—management indicated EBITDA unlocking in FY25-26, but Q1 FY26 results already disappointed, with revenue down 12% and net income plunging 50%.

Key risks include continued earnings misses, forex volatility (Australian mining operations remain a headwind), and competitive pressure from new entrants like UltraTech Cement, which rattled the wires and cables sector. If Q2 results fail to show copper segment traction, sentiment could sour quickly.

The Bigger Picture

India’s copper market is booming, projected to grow from $15.09 billion in 2024 to $25.06 billion by 2032 at a 6.65% CAGR. Domestic demand is surging at 11% annually, driven by infrastructure, EVs, renewable energy, and power transmission. However, India imports over 90% of its copper needs, creating a strategic opportunity for domestic producers.

Adani’s 0.5 MTPA smelter at Kutch Copper positions it to rival Hindalco Industries, India’s dominant copper producer, especially after Vedanta’s Sterlite Copper closure. The MetTube partnership targets forward integration into copper tubes for HVAC applications, aligning with government “Make in India” and import substitution goals. But execution risk is high, and with Hindustan Copper and JSW Group also expanding capacity, competition is intensifying.

The Takeaway

Adani Enterprises is building a credible copper business, but traders should temper enthusiasm until EBITDA contribution materializes. At ₹2,481, the stock offers asymmetric upside if the copper segment delivers, but near-term catalysts are lacking. Wait for a confirmed breakout above ₹2,600 or a positive earnings surprise before initiating long positions. For now, this remains a show-me story in a stock that’s lost 19% from recent highs. Monitor Q2 results closely—if copper revenue and margins improve, the analyst targets of ₹3,800+ become more credible. Until then, stay cautious.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations. The author is not SEBI-registered as an investment advisor. Recipients should conduct their own research and consult a qualified, SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks; read all related documents carefully before investing.