Tata Power Surges on 4,150 MW Mundra Restart & 100 GW Nuclear Ambition by 2047

Tata Power: Two Game-Changers Converge for Traders

Tata Power stands at a critical inflection point. The stock just caught fire on news that its stalled Mundra mega-plant could roar back to life next month, while India’s nuclear sector privatization opens a completely new growth frontier. For active traders, this isn’t just another utility stock story—it’s a potential sentiment reversal in the making.

The convergence of these catalysts creates immediate trading opportunities. But here’s the catch: analyst sentiment is sharply divided, and execution risks loom large. What matters now is whether these developments can break Tata Power out of its recent trading range and trigger sustainable momentum.

What Just Happened

Tata Power’s long-dormant Mundra Ultra Mega Power Project received an in-principle nod from the Gujarat government for a supplemental power purchase agreement, according to CNBC-TV18 sources (November 27, 2025). This 4,150 MW supercritical thermal plant, idle since July 2025, could resume operations as early as December 2025.

The Mundra restart would be a massive operational win. When running under Section 11 provisions, this plant contributed over ₹1,000 crore to Tata Power’s FY25 profit. Its shutdown cost the company ₹362 crore in Q2 FY26 losses. The plant represents nearly 25% of Tata Power’s total 16 GW generation capacity—its revival would immediately boost the bottom line.

Simultaneously, Prime Minister Modi announced on November 27 that India’s nuclear power sector will open to private players. The Atomic Energy Bill 2025, set for introduction in Parliament’s Winter Session starting December 1, aims to scale nuclear capacity from 8.8 GW to 100 GW by 2047. Tata Power CEO Praveer Sinha has already confirmed the company is evaluating multiple sites for nuclear projects and pursuing opportunities in small modular reactors (World Nuclear News, February 11, 2025).

Stock Reaction and Analyst Battle Lines

Tata Power closed at ₹392.05 on November 27, up 0.14% after surging as much as 3.03% the previous day on the Mundra news. The stock is currently trading 12.4% below its 52-week high of ₹447.70 and 20.8% below its all-time high of ₹494.85. This positioning suggests meaningful upside potential if the catalysts materialize.

But here’s where it gets interesting for traders: analysts are fighting each other with drastically different views.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains a BUY rating with a ₹480 target, implying 22.4% upside from current levels (Livemint, October 28, 2025). They view Tata Power as a key beneficiary of power sector liberalization and value the renewable segment at 14x FY27 EBITDA. Their bull case gets further support from the Mundra resolution and distribution business expansion across 40+ Uttar Pradesh districts.

On the opposite side, Jefferies analyst Lavina Quadros holds a SELL rating with a ₹335 target, representing 14.6% downside (September 10, 2025). CLSA’s Bharat Parekh sits in the middle with a HOLD rating at ₹369 target, a 5.9% downside from here (September 23, 2025).

The consensus is murky. TipRanks shows a “Moderate Sell” rating based on recent coverage, with an average target of ₹352 suggesting 10.2% downside. However, Trendlyne’s compilation of 5 analysts points to a ₹479.50 average target and 22.3% upside. This 13-percentage-point divergence between research platforms signals high uncertainty—and high volatility potential.

What This Means for Traders Right Now

Momentum Context: The recent two-day surge on heavy volume indicates shifting sentiment, but the broader trend remains choppy. November shows a -3.17% monthly decline, though the stock has bounced sharply from its ₹379 intraday low on November 25. The key question: is this a genuine breakout or a news-driven pop within a range?

Entry/Exit Considerations: Aggressive traders could enter on momentum above ₹395 with a stop-loss at ₹380, targeting the ₹410-₹420 range initially. Conservative traders should wait for a daily close above ₹400 with confirmation of the PPA signing before committing capital. The ₹380-₹385 zone offers strong support based on recent lows, while ₹447.70 marks the critical 52-week resistance level that, if breached, could trigger a run toward ₹480+.

Sentiment Shift Potential: The Mundra resolution alone could shift consensus from “hold” to “buy” if executed smoothly. Adding nuclear ambitions transforms the growth narrative from utility stalwart to clean energy innovator. However, sentiment remains fragile after Q2 EBITDA margins compressed to 21.2% from 23.9% year-over-year.

Key Price Levels to Watch:

• Support: ₹379-₹380 (recent low, psychological level)
• Intermediate Resistance: ₹400-₹410 (recent range top)
• Major Resistance: ₹447.70 (52-week high, breakout trigger)
• Long-term Target: ₹480-₹494 (analyst target zone and all-time high)

Next Catalysts: The timeline is compressed. Final PPA signing for Mundra could happen within days, not weeks. The Atomic Energy Bill hits Parliament December 1. Q3 FY26 earnings follow in January 2026, which will show whether operational improvements materialize. Any update on nuclear site selection would be an additional positive surprise.

Risk Factors:

1. Execution Risk: The Mundra restart depends on finalizing agreements with Gujarat and four other states (Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan). Any delay or failure would crush the recent rally.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The Nuclear Bill faces potential parliamentary opposition. Even if passed, SMR approvals take 24 months followed by 4-5 year construction timelines—longer than equity markets typically wait.
3. Fundamental Weakness: Q2 FY26 showed declining EBITDA margins and missed revenue estimates. If core operations don’t improve, multiple expansion becomes unjustified.

The Bigger Picture: India’s Power Transformation

India’s power sector is accelerating at 8.8% CAGR toward 817 GW by 2030, with nuclear playing a strategic baseload role alongside renewables. Tata Power’s positioning across generation, transmission, distribution, and now nuclear gives it multiple levers in a ₹40 lakh crore investment opportunity over the next decade. The government’s target of 100 GW nuclear capacity by 2047 creates a first-mover advantage for early private entrants like Tata Power.

However, execution separates winners from pretenders. The Mundra plant has cumulatively lost approximately ₹12,000 crore since commissioning in 2013, according to Fortune India (April 2024). Fixing this legacy issue is essential before markets award premium valuations for new nuclear ventures.

Trading Takeaway

For aggressive traders, Tata Power offers a compelling risk-reward setup with a visible catalyst calendar. A 5-10% position with a stop at ₹375 captures upside while limiting downside. Conservative traders should wait for confirmed Mundra restart and Bill passage before entering above ₹410. The divergence in analyst targets creates volatility—exactly what active traders need. Watch volume confirmation: sustained daily volumes above 7-8 million shares validate institutional buying, while drops below 4 million signal waning interest and time to exit.

The next 30 days will define Tata Power’s narrative for 2026. Either both catalysts deliver and the stock challenges ₹450+, or execution hiccups send it back to ₹350. Place your bets accordingly, but position-size defensively until the ink dries on these agreements.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations. The author is not SEBI-registered as an investment advisor. Recipients should conduct their own research and consult a qualified, SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks; read all related documents carefully before investing.