Global PC shipments are expected to recover in 2024 after an unprecedented decline in demand for PCs, according to IDC. » Today Latest Stories
Needham, Massachusetts, December 21, 2023 – With total shipments reaching 68.5 million units in Q3 2023, the global PC market has managed to exceed expectations. But that volume is still down 7.2% compared to the same quarter in 2022, according to the International Data Corporation’s (IDC) quarterly global personal computing hardware tracker.
Although the PC market exceeded initial expectations, both drivers and inhibitors impacted this performance. First, the increase in volume can be attributed in part to inventory restocking, primarily on the consumer side. Second, notable efforts have been made to address expected cost escalation, such as expected increases in import duties in India. Although these fees were later suspended, these concerns resulted in the canal absorbing more units than was likely necessary. Finally, further tightening of IT budgets has resulted in lower performance of business PC units compared to already conservative business expectations.
Given the current conditions and fragile macroeconomic environment, IDC has lowered its forecast for the worldwide PC market. Shipment volume in 2023 is now expected to be 13.8% lower than in 2022, which was down 16.6% compared to the previous year. Two consecutive years of double-digit year-over-year declines is an unprecedented trend in the PC market, but one that will likely contribute to the recovery beyond. Despite the short-term challenges, IDC continues to expect the market to rebound in 2024 and beyond as many factors converge over the next two years. A few of the key drivers include:
- Computer update cycle: The vast and aging base of business PCs that pass the four-year mark by 2024 is expected to require a refresh, coinciding with the urgent demand to move to Windows 11. The total PC market for 2024 is expected to grow by 3.4% compared to 2023. .
- AI integration: The integration of AI capabilities into PCs is expected to be a catalyst for the upgrades, as they will hit shelves in 2024 and initially target specific segments of the enterprise PC market. Over time, further advances in use cases and cost reductions can spread to the broader market.
- Continued evolution and recovery of our installed consumer base.
The collective impact of these factors makes 2024 a pivotal year for the PC market, providing a respite from recent challenges. After 2024, growth is expected to exceed pre-pandemic shipment levels and peak at 285 million units by 2027.
“Perhaps historical context can offer some solace for the hard work the PC ecosystem is going through,” said JI Chu, research director at IDC Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. “Although we still expect eight consecutive quarters of year-over-year PC volume declines from Q1 2022 through Q4 2023, it still pales in comparison to the 19 consecutive quarters of year-over-year PC declines Annually from the second quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2016. Moreover, laptop purchases are already at higher levels than in 2019, indicating a significant expansion of the laptop market even after the decline in purchases caused by the Corona virus. “We confirm that factors such as hybrid working, commercial modernization, and growth in premium PCs could lead to a CAGR of 3.1% from 2023 to 2027.”
Worldwide Personal Computing Devices Forecast by Market Segment: Shipments, YoY Growth and CAGR for 2023-2027 (Shipments in millions) | |||||
slice | Shipments 2023 | Growth 2022/23 | Shipments 2027 | Growth 2026/2027 | 2023-2027 CAGR |
consumer | 113.9 | -14.8% | 125.5 | 1.4% | 2.4% |
education | 29.6 | -15.4% | 35.0 | 0.8% | 4.2% |
Commercial (eg Edu) | 108.3 | -12.2% | 124.6 | 2.6% | 3.6% |
the total | 251.8 | -13.8% | 285.0 | 1.8% | 3.1% |
Source: IDC Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker, December 21, 2023 | |||||
Notes:
- Traditional computers include desktops, laptops, and workstations and do not include tablets or x86 servers. Detachable tablets and Slate tablets are part of the Personal Computing Device Tracker but are not covered in this press release.
- Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted within the company/brand under which they are sold.
IDC’s Global Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker collects detailed market data in more than 90 countries. The research includes analysis of historical and forecast trends among other data.
For more information or to participate in the research, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 or jkliem@idc.com.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market sizing, company share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the world. Using proprietary tools and searches, IDC’s tracking tools are updated on a semi-annual, quarterly and monthly basis. Tracking results are delivered to clients in easy-to-use Excel outputs and online query tools.
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About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market information, advisory services, and events for the ICT and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC provides global, regional and local expertise on technology, IT standards and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in more than 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business managers and the investment community make fact-based technology decisions and achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group.IDG), the world’s leading technology, data, and marketing media services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC And LinkedIn. Subscribe to IDC Blog For industry news and insights.
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