HFCL Secures ₹656 Cr Export Order; Fuels Global OFC Push, Eyes 38% Stock Upside

HFCL’s ₹656 Crore Export Order: A Turnaround Signal or a Value Trap?

HFCL just landed a massive $72.96 million export order for optical fiber cables, and traders are wondering if this is the catalyst that finally breaks the stock out of its year-long downtrend. The stock has cratered 50% from its 52-week high, but it’s now trading just 1.2% above its 52-week low. For aggressive traders, this setup looks like a classic risk-reward play. For conservative investors, the question is whether this order actually moves the needle on profitability.

The export order, announced December 6, represents nearly 16% of HFCL’s annual revenue. That’s not a small deal. But here’s what matters for your trading account: how the stock reacts at key technical levels, what analysts are actually targeting, and whether this marks a fundamental shift in sentiment.

What Happened

HFCL secured export orders worth approximately $72.96 million (₹656.10 crore) for the supply of optical fiber cables through its overseas wholly-owned subsidiary. The customer is described as a “renowned international customer,” though the company hasn’t disclosed the name.

These orders are scheduled for execution by November 2026, creating a multi-year revenue pipeline. The company stated this “reaffirms the trust our global customers place in the Company’s manufacturing capabilities, technological excellence and product quality.” The orders are based on general contract conditions and don’t involve related-party transactions.

Following the announcement, HFCL shares initially spiked over 3% to an intraday high of ₹71.15 on December 8 before fading to close at ₹69.23. The early rally suggests buyer interest, but the pullback indicates sellers are still active at resistance levels.

The timing matters here. This export win comes just as HFCL’s international business has surged to 28% of total revenue in Q2 FY26, up dramatically from 10% in the same quarter last year. This isn’t a one-off fluke—it’s part of a broader strategic shift.

Stock Performance & Analyst View

HFCL closed at ₹66.49 on December 8, down 3.68% on the day. The stock is trading just ₹0.79 above its 52-week low of ₹65.70, putting it in critical support territory.

The recent momentum is clearly negative. Over the last five trading sessions, the stock has dropped from ₹70.72 to ₹66.49—a 6% decline. Volume on December 8 was 30.6 million shares, which is moderate but not heavy enough to signal capitulation.

Analyst sentiment shows a clear divergence. ICICI Securities maintains a BUY rating with a ₹92 target price, implying 38.4% upside from current levels (The Economic Times, December 8, 2025). This target represents a significant premium and suggests institutional confidence in the turnaround story.

Meanwhile, TradingView shows a Neutral rating based on a single analyst with a ₹145 target—representing 118% upside. However, this appears to be stale data and shouldn’t be weighted heavily. The consensus is thin here, which actually creates opportunity for traders who can position before broader coverage resumes.

What This Means for Traders

The stock is sitting on a knife’s edge. At ₹66.49, you’re buying within 1.2% of the absolute floor. If HFCL breaks below ₹65.70, the next support is essentially non-existent until you hit the pre-pandemic levels around ₹45. That’s a 32% downside cliff.

But the upside scenario is compelling. A return to the recent high of ₹71.15 gives you 7% upside. If the stock can reclaim its 50-day moving average around ₹75, you’re looking at 13% gains. And if ICICI Securities’ ₹92 target plays out, that’s 38% upside. The risk-reward ratio heavily favors bulls at these levels.

Entry considerations depend on your trading style. Aggressive traders could start building positions here with a tight stop-loss at ₹64.50—just below the 52-week low. Conservative traders should wait for a confirmed break above ₹71.15 with volume expansion above 40 million shares. That would signal genuine buying interest rather than dead-cat bounce.

Key price levels to watch: immediate support at ₹65.70 (52-week low), resistance at ₹71.15 (recent intraday high), secondary resistance at ₹75 (50-day MA), and the analyst target at ₹92. The stock hasn’t touched its 200-day MA (around ₹85) since July, making that a longer-term recovery target.

Next catalysts are clearly defined. Q3 FY26 earnings in January will show whether the export order is impacting margins. Any update on the BharatNet Phase 3 contracts (where HFCL is L1 bidder for over ₹8,100 crore) could be a major mover. And watch for additional export announcements—the company is clearly pursuing international growth aggressively.

Risk factors are real and shouldn’t be ignored. Margin pressure remains a concern despite EBITDA improvements. The ₹656 crore order sounds large, but it’s spread over 11 months, meaning roughly ₹60 crore quarterly revenue impact—significant but not transformational. Execution risk exists with any large export order. And the broader telecom capex cycle remains uneven.

The Bigger Picture

HFCL is positioning itself as a dual-play beneficiary: domestic 5G infrastructure rollout and global fiber demand surge. The company’s defense electronics segment, which includes thermal weapon sights and participation in a ₹1,100 crore BMP upgrade tender, provides a non-telecom growth kicker.

The optical fiber cable market is experiencing structural demand growth driven by data center expansion, 5G backhaul requirements, and government-led rural broadband programs. HFCL’s ability to secure a ₹656 crore export order suggests its products are globally competitive on both price and quality.

Bottom Line

This is a high-conviction trade for aggressive traders with a 3-6 month horizon. The risk-reward at ₹66.49 is skewed positively, with limited downside if you honor stops and significant upside if the export momentum continues. Conservative investors should wait for technical confirmation above ₹71.15 and fundamental confirmation in the form of margin expansion in Q3.

The export order isn’t just a revenue event—it’s a sentiment shift. HFCL is proving it can compete globally, and that matters more than the actual dollar amount. For traders, the play is clear: small position here, add on strength, cut losses quickly if ₹65.70 breaks.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations. The author is not SEBI-registered as an investment advisor. Recipients should conduct their own research and consult a qualified, SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks; read all related documents carefully before investing.