Reliance commits $11 billion to India’s 1-gigawatt AI data center campus by 2030

Reliance’s $11 Billion AI Gambit: A Trader’s Playbook for the Data Center Boom

Reliance Industries just made its biggest bet yet on India’s AI future, and the stock is already flashing breakout signals at ₹1,569.90.

Shares hit a fresh 52-week high of ₹1,571.60 on November 26 as the $11 billion data center announcement triggered a 1.96% single-day surge. Year-to-date gains now exceed 29%, but the real question for traders is whether this is the start of a new leg up toward all-time highs or a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup.

What Actually Happened

Digital Connexion—a joint venture between Reliance Industries, Brookfield, and Digital Realty—committed $11 billion (approximately ₹98,000 crore) to build a 1-gigawatt AI-native data center campus in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh.

This isn’t routine capex. The 400-acre facility, targeted for completion by 2030, represents one of India’s largest digital infrastructure projects ever conceived. Purpose-built for AI training and inference workloads, it features redundant power, renewable energy sourcing, and next-generation cooling systems designed to handle advanced GPUs and AI processors.

The timing is strategic. India’s data center capacity is projected to more than triple to 4.5 GW by 2030, and AI workloads are expected to surge from less than 1% of total demand to 15-20% by fiscal 2030. Reliance is positioning itself at the center of this transformation.

The rally came on solid volume, with Groww reporting 14.1 million NSE shares traded on November 26.

Stock Performance and Analyst View

At ₹1,569.90, Reliance sits just 0.1% below its 52-week high and 2.5% away from its all-time high of ₹1,608.80 set in July 2024. The monthly gain of 5.62% and weekly gain of 1.51% confirm accelerating momentum.

Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish. TipRanks data compiled within the last three months shows an average 12-month price target of ₹1,702.50, implying 8.4% upside. The consensus rating is a “Strong Buy” based on six Wall Street analysts.

Individual targets vary significantly.

JP Morgan reaffirmed an ‘overweight’ rating on November 25 with a ₹1,727 target, indicating 10% upside from current levels.

Motilal Oswal upgraded its target to ₹1,765 (12.4% upside) on November 25, citing strong segmental performance across telecom and retail.

Nuvama maintains the highest target at ₹1,733 (10.4% upside) as of September 1, viewing AI and FMCG as additional growth drivers.

ICICI Securities analyst Probal Sen raised his target to ₹1,570 while maintaining an “Add” rating within the last three months—essentially a neutral stance given minimal upside.

Simply Wall St raised its target from ₹1,664 to ₹1,686 on November 3, specifically citing the “upcoming AI partnership and digital expansion” as a key earnings driver.

What This Means for Traders

Momentum is clearly positive. The stock has broken above ₹1,550 resistance that capped it for most of November. Higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart show a strong uptrend, with the 5-day moving average providing dynamic support around ₹1,540.

Aggressive traders have a clear setup. Enter on a confirmed breakout above ₹1,571.60 with volume exceeding recent averages. The next target is the all-time high of ₹1,608.80, just 2.5% away.

Conservative traders should exercise patience. Wait for a pullback to the ₹1,500-1,520 zone. This area represents previous resistance-turned-support and offers a better risk-reward ratio. A stop-loss below ₹1,470 (the November low) would limit downside to roughly 3% while preserving upside potential.

Sentiment has fundamentally shifted. For months, traders worried about RIL’s high capex and debt levels. The AI narrative reframes these investments as essential infrastructure. Morgan Stanley stated on September 1 that RIL’s AI ambition should be NAV accretive.

Key price levels to watch:

• Resistance 1: ₹1,571.60 (52-week high, psychological barrier)
• Resistance 2: ₹1,608.80 (all-time high, breakout triggers momentum)
• Support 1: ₹1,550 (round number, recent breakout level)
• Support 2: ₹1,520 (mid-November consolidation floor)
• Support 3: ₹1,470 (strong base, also 50-day moving average)

Next catalysts are clearly defined. The immediate trigger is Q3 FY25 earnings on January 15-17, 2026, where management will provide more color on project timelines. The Jio Platforms IPO, expected in H1 2026, represents a major value unlock. Any announcement on tariff hikes by December could boost ARPU and EBITDA.

Three specific risks could derail this thesis:

1. Execution risk: A $11 billion, five-year project faces inevitable delays, cost overruns, and regulatory hurdles. Global GPU shortages could bottleneck capacity ramp-up.
2. Competitive intensity: Adani Enterprises partnered with Google for a $15 billion, 10 GW data center empire. Both are building in Visakhapatnam, setting up a direct clash for clients and resources.
3. Balance sheet stress: Net debt stands at ₹115,465 crore. While capex is tapering, this project adds a fresh five-year commitment. Any slowdown in cash flows from the core O2C business could pressure valuations.

The Bigger Picture: A Two-Horse Race

India’s data center market is morphing into a direct battle between Reliance and Adani, with global tech giants picking sides. AdaniConneX, with Google as anchor partner, currently leads in near-term operational capacity with projects already live in Chennai and Hyderabad.

Reliance’s strategy differs: massive AI-native campuses designed for hyperscale training workloads, anchored by its Jio connectivity and retail relationships. The Digital Connexion JV brings Brookfield’s infrastructure expertise and Digital Realty’s global client base.

The market is large enough for both—capacity needs to triple by 2030—but margin pressure could emerge as they undercut each other on pricing to win hyperscaler contracts. Watch for partnership announcements; whoever lands AWS or Azure as anchor tenants gains a decisive edge.

Trading Takeaway

The $11 billion announcement validates Reliance’s AI pivot and provides a clear growth narrative through 2030. For aggressive traders, momentum favors long positions on sustained volume above ₹1,571, with the all-time high as a near-term target.

For conservative traders, wait for earnings clarity or a pullback to ₹1,520. Either way, this isn’t a one-day news trade. It’s a structural story that repositions Reliance from a traditional conglomerate to an AI infrastructure play. The key is managing position size given execution risks and competitive intensity. Keep stops tight and watch volume at resistance—if the stock fails to hold ₹1,550, the breakout could reverse quickly.

Disclaimer: This blog has been written exclusively for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations. The author is not SEBI-registered as an investment advisor. Recipients should conduct their own research and consult a qualified, SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks; read all related documents carefully before investing.