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With several US states hearing objections to Donald Trump’s right to run in the 2024 elections, his supporters claim that his enemies are tearing apart democracy to prevent his return to the White House.

Rulings in Colorado and Maine barring the former president from participating in nominating primaries under the Constitution’s “rebellion clause” have created a political earthquake that could upend the campaign.

But do they pose a real threat to Trump’s presidential ambitions?

Why Trump might be unqualified

The US House of Representatives charged the Republican businessman with incitement of insurrection after he called on his supporters to march to the US Capitol before a deadly riot that delayed the certification of the 2020 election.

A large, bipartisan majority in the Senate approved the House of Representatives’ conclusion, but the number fell short of the two-thirds of members required for conviction, which would have prevented Trump from running for president again.

Federal prosecutors have since charged Trump with conspiring to commit the violence, and his trial is scheduled for March.

Meanwhile, activists have filed appeals in courts across the country to block his name from appearing on ballots for the state’s primary under the 14th Amendment, which bars people from office if they take an oath to defend the Constitution and then “engage in rebellion.”

Where is Trump banned from running?

On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump was ineligible to run in the state’s primary election under the “rebellion clause” of the Fourteenth Amendment.

Maine — where the secretary of state, currently a Democrat, makes the initial eligibility determination — followed suit on Thursday.

Related appeals have been filed nationwide, with decisions pending in 14 states, according to national security website Lawfare’s online expungement tracker.

what happened after that?

Both states have suspended their bans while the legal process continues, meaning Trump will almost certainly appear on both ballots in the March 5 primaries.

Grassroots Republicans have appealed the ruling in Colorado, and the Trump campaign has indicated it intends to appeal in both cases.

Maine’s decision will go to the state Supreme Court first, while Colorado’s ruling has already gone through the state system and will go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.

What can the US Supreme Court do?

The deeply conservative-leaning Supreme Court — which includes three Trump appointees — could decline to review the Colorado case, meaning Trump’s ban would continue.

In fact, most analysts believe Maine’s joining Colorado removes any doubt that the justices will act.

They will determine whether Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment — the Insurrection Clause — applies to the former president.

The court could also rule on whether the ban is automatic or would require action by Congress, and whether the 2021 storming of the Capitol and Trump’s role in it actually constituted insurrection.

Effect of the ban

Even if the bans in Colorado and Maine are in place, it is expected that Trump, who is in the lead, will be able to comfortably secure the Republican nomination without these two states, so his path to the White House will not necessarily be hindered.

But the Supreme Court’s negative ruling that binds lower courts across the country — rather than a narrow procedural ruling affecting only Colorado — could torpedo the former president’s primary challenge.

He will then have to decide whether to run for president as a third-party candidate.

But even if the Supreme Court does not consider state-level rulings and the damage is limited to Colorado and Maine, the justices may leave the door open to challenges to Trump’s general election eligibility.

So he could find himself barred from challenging President Joe Biden in November, even if he wins the Republican nomination.

timetable

It is known that the justice system in the United States moves very slowly – especially at its top.

The Supreme Court has not made clear whether it intends to take up the appeal in Colorado, or how long it would take to rule on Trump’s competency if it did. Trump’s opponents stressed the importance of making an urgent decision.

The court can act quickly when needed: Its ruling that ended Florida’s vote count in the 2000 election — handing victory to George W. Bush — took less than a month.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)