North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon since 2017. (Archive)
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that the missile test conducted this week shows that his country will not hesitate to launch a nuclear attack if the enemy provokes it with strategic weapons, while observers say he is moving to make such forces ready for action.
Analysts said Kim’s comments were the latest in a series of statements and legislative changes that outlined an expansive, vague and potentially destabilizing doctrine.
Here’s what we know about how and when North Korea says it can use its nuclear weapons.
When can North Korea use its nuclear weapons?
North Korea says it opposes war, that its nuclear weapons are for self-defense, and that they are necessary for protection against the “hostile” policies pursued by Washington, South Korea and Japan.
In a speech during a military parade last year, Kim said his nuclear force was tasked with preventing war through deterrence and possibly carrying out strikes against anyone who violated North Korea’s “core interests.”
Analysts said the comments appeared to reflect language used by the US Nuclear Posture Review, which says it will use nuclear weapons to defend its “vital interests” or those of its allies.
In September 2022, North Korea enshrined the right to use preemptive nuclear strikes to protect itself in a new law.
Among the scenarios that could lead to a nuclear attack would be the threat of an imminent nuclear strike; If the country’s leadership, its people, or its existence are threatened; Or get the upper hand during war.
Under the law, Kim has “all decisive powers” over nuclear weapons, but if the command and control system is threatened, missiles can be launched “automatically.”
State media said the new law prohibits the exchange of nuclear weapons or technology with other countries, and aims to reduce the risk of nuclear war by preventing miscalculations between nuclear-weapon states and the misuse of nuclear weapons.
However, analysts said that if Kim’s delegates give power to lower commanders during the crisis, it could increase the chances of a catastrophic miscalculation.
North Korea also adopted a constitutional amendment to enshrine its policy on nuclear forces in September 2023, with Kim pledging to accelerate the production of nuclear weapons to deter what he called American provocations.
North Korean Defense Minister Kang Sun Nam said in July that deploying US aircraft carriers, bombers or missile submarines in South Korea could meet the criteria for its use of nuclear weapons.
Where could North Korea target?
In 2017, the year North Korea launched its first successful intercontinental ballistic missile, its State Department threatened a nuclear strike “at the heart of the United States” if Washington showed “the slightest sign of attempting to remove our senior leadership.”
That year, North Korea also threatened to use its nuclear weapons to sink Japan into the sea.
In 2022, Kim Jong Un’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, issued a statement warning that the North would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if attacked by South Korea.
Kim Yo Jong presented a detailed scenario in which North Korea mobilized its nuclear forces in response to an attack by the South and used them to “fully mitigate the enemy’s warlike spirit, prevent protracted hostilities, and preserve its military muscle.”
What weapons does North Korea have?
North Korea has not tested a nuclear weapon since 2017, but analysts say it has likely continued to produce uranium and plutonium for warheads.
A study by the Institute for Science and International Security in April estimated that Pyongyang may possess between 31 and 96 nuclear weapons, depending on the types of devices it manufactures.
Kim said in 2021 that North Korea is capable of “miniaturizing, mitigating and standardizing nuclear weapons.” In January 2023, he said the country would “significantly expand its nuclear arsenal” and “produce significant quantities” of tactical nuclear weapons.
Pyongyang has also moved forward with the production of new missiles to carry nuclear weapons, including massive liquid- and solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of the United States, short-range missiles capable of carrying tactical warheads, and the first nuclear-armed cruise missiles.
North Korea’s use of the term “launch training” rather than “test launch” to describe an ICBM launch this week indicates the country is prepared to produce and deploy large quantities of Hwasong-18 ICBMs, said Cheong Seung-chang, a political affairs expert. For North Korea. The strategy is based at the Sejong Institute near Seoul, it said in a commentary on Tuesday.
“Next year, North Korea will continue its strength by testing solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic missiles launched from strategic nuclear attack submarines, and developing multi-warhead intercontinental ballistic missiles,” he wrote.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
